Hawaii 5-0 … 0-0-0

Just a couple of minutes ago the hit counter on my blog reached 50,000, and, our vacation to Hawaii is coming up.  So it took me back to days when I used to watch the TV series Hawaii 5-0 starring Jack Lord.   (”Book him, Denno”)  It was a great show, and had a great music theme, which most people would still recognize today.

I’m so popular these days that I had a full half-hour phone conversation with my friend Brian while the counter sat at 49,999.  So, take out the 49,000+ accidental and typo hits – and like, I’ve had almost a thousand on-purpose hits here over the past two years and 5 months!  Shakespeare and Dickens, watch your backs … 

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

TU#172 – REAPing into action

TRADING UPDATE

After a very quiet couple of weeks of no trades at all, the REAP portfolio finally awoke with a start by scrambling to respond to the clanging of 3 signals presented not just in the same week, but in the same day.  Meanwhile the Commodity ETF portfolio lost some more ground and picked up yet more inventory.  In REAP we were buying loads of real-estate and oil – you can call me “J.R.” from now on.  (Actually once when Cindy and I were in Boston, a black fellow sitting on the steps of a church looked at me strangely as we were walking by, pointed at me and said “Hey, you’re that guy J.R. in “Dallas“!   I wouldn’t have minded being Larry Hagman, but not so much for his character in Dallas as his one in “I Dream of Jeannie“.  I was only a kid when that last aired, but man, Barbara Eden was hot - particularly in that genie suit.”)

REAP TRADES			Trading Update # 172
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
279	Sold	32%	iPth Cotton ETF	BAL	@	$30.46		5
279	Bought	69%	Drxn Energy Bull 3X ETF	ERX	@	$22.24		5
280	Sold	31%	ProSh UlSht Silver ETF	ZSL	@	$10.36		4
280	Bought	36%	ProSh Ult RlEst ETF	URE	@	$3.04		4
281	Sold	33%	ProSh UlSht Rus2000 ETF	SKK	@	$37.58		3
281	Bought	55%	ProSh Ult Cr Oil ETF	UCO	@	$9.82		2
REAP methodology detailed in the blogroll under “My Portfolio”
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased
C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 172
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Bought	28%	HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	@	$10.51		ET
	Bought	18%	HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	@	$4.22		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

REAP has been holding up about on pace with the S&P500; the recent weakness in commodities has prevented REAP from really pulling ahead of the S&P500 despite the significant short equity ETF hedges.  In fact one of the sells was the silver short ETF (ZSL).  In the CETF program I’ve pretty much used up all the spare cash to buy on the down-scale.  There have been no sells because there have been no up days.  Two words:   fade … me.

Here’s the portfolio status.

PORTFOLIO SUMMARY			8-Jul-09
			GAIN	WGT
COMMODITY ETFs				19.9%
REAP				80.1%
Total Equity (Cdn)			-32.0%	100.0%
**********************************************************************
C-ETF PORTFOLIO				C-ETF
(Cdn  Dollars)
Inception 24 JUN 09				-16.2%
CETF POSITIONS
ETF	SYM	LAST	GAIN%	WGT
HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	$16.50	-20.1%	31.5%
HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	$10.25	-9.0%	14.1%
HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	$4.26	-19.9%	22.8%
HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	$7.16	-16.6%	20.8%
Cash				10.8%
**********************************************************************
REAP PORTFOLIO	S&P500	S&P500	SP500	REAP	vs S&P
(US Dollars)			TOT RET
REF DATE	START	LAST	%	%	VAR
Inception MAR 07	1406.2	879.6	-33.1%	-29.3%	3.8%
Re-start OCT 07	1526.7	879.6	-42.4%	-29.8%	12.6%
2009 Year to Date	903.3	879.6	-2.6%	1.3%	3.9%
CDN DOLLAR	LAST	INCPT	VAR	Oct-07	VAR
	0.8593	0.8547	-0.5%	1.0069	14.7%
AVERAGE YIELD					1.37%
LEVERAGE (from 2x ETFs)				x	1.55
CURRENCY MIX					100.0%
US Cash					9.8%
US Investments					76.1%
Other (Currency & Country ETFs)					14.2%
MARKET BIAS				NET LONG	35.5%
Cash					9.8%
Short					27.4%
Long					62.9%
THEME MIX					100.0%
Agriculture					4.0%
Energy					12.2%
Metals					10.1%
Other Commodity					1.5%
Short Commodity					2.3%
Country ETF					6.2%
Financial					4.7%
Health Care					0.0%
Infrastructure					2.2%
Real Estate					6.3%
Retail					0.0%
Technology					9.3%
Transportation					1.5%
Short Equity					20.9%
Short Bond					4.1%
Currency					4.8%
Cash					9.8%
Portfolio Notes
Inception date is when I started tracking portfolio performance in
this blog.  I track it to reflect total performance after initial mistakes
and discretionary trading losses.  A more accurate representation
of REAP’s “pure” performance is as of 10 Oct 07, when I
re-established it after selling out the portfolio twice due to
sub-prime systemic concerns.
*** S&P Comparison is total return to reflect dividend re-investment
REAP GROUPS
STOCK	SYM	LAST	GAIN %	WGT	YLD
GROUP #1
ProSh Ultra Silver ETF	AGQ	$36.23	-13.68%	4.6%	0.00%
British Petroleum	BP	$45.31	-2.86%	2.9%	7.15%
Buff Wld Wings	BWLD	$31.75	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
iSh Australia ETF	EWA	$15.55	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Garmin	GRMN	$22.89	4.18%	1.0%	3.42%
iPth Coffee ETF	JO	$34.26	-6.61%	1.6%	0.00%
GROUP #1
FTSE/Xinhua China ETF	FXI	$36.51	6.35%	3.2%	1.21%
Genesee & Wyoming	GWR	$25.00	2.80%	1.5%	0.00%
Nvidia	NVDA	$10.11	16.90%	5.0%	0.00%
UBS Ag Platinum ETF	PTM	$13.03	-7.04%	3.0%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht SP500 ETF	SDS	$60.16	4.07%	7.0%	1.00%
ProSh Ult Cr Oil ETF	UCO	$9.71	6.59%	3.4%	0.00%
GROUP #1
Clay Gl Lumber ETF	CUT	$12.61	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
iSh Singapore ETF	EWS	$8.66	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Formfactor	FORM	$18.97	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Rus2000 ETF	SKK	$36.80	9.52%	1.3%	2.53%
Sun Hydraulics	SNHY	$15.40	-6.05%	2.2%	1.96%
ProSh USht Bonds ETF	TBT	$48.35	23.68%	4.1%	1.69%
GROUP #1
iPth Copper ETF	JJC	$29.94	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Nokia	NOK	$14.17	-6.99%	3.3%	3.93%
ProSh UlSht QQQ ETF	QID	$34.93	-12.68%	5.5%	2.02%
ProSh Ult RlEst ETF	URE	$3.13	-5.78%	6.3%	7.63%
ProSh Ult JpYen ETF	YCL	$26.64	2.41%	2.5%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Silver ETF	ZSL	$10.30	20.49%	2.3%	0.00%
GROUP #5
iPth Cotton ETF	BAL	$30.68	-5.16%	1.5%	0.00%
CME Group	CME	$263.90	14.13%	2.8%	1.99%
Drxn Energy Bull 3X ETF	ERX	$23.31	-11.07%	3.2%	0.77%
Merck	MRK	$28.04	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Claym Gl Solar ETF	TAN	$8.41	-8.91%	2.7%	0.00%
MkVec Gold Mng ETF	GDX	$35.19	-8.08%	2.4%	0.03%
GROUP #6
Broadcom	BRCM	$23.35	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Dow ETF	DXD	$51.00	-11.46%	7.1%	0.96%
iSh Hong Kong ETF	EWH	$13.07	4.27%	3.0%	5.86%
iPth Sugar ETF	SGG	$51.86	2.74%	2.4%	0.00%
ProSh Ult Euro ETF	ULE	$28.55	0.99%	2.3%	0.00%
ProSh Ult Financl ETF	UYG	$3.41	-8.82%	2.0%	1.89%

Cindy is now in St Louis and I’m Mr. Mom again for this week at least.  Last time she was in Seattle to help her sister Elizabeth get through her cancer treatments.  This time it was Cindy’s mother Jane having to undergo emergency surgery for an intestinal blockage.  Jane appears to have come through nicely and is on the mend.  Elizabeth thankfully is also recovering – there are no visible remaining signs of the cancer, but getting the chemo out of the system is an arduous many-month-long process.   We’re all planning to get together in Hawaii in the first week of August – I hope everyone will be up to it.  Our family get-togethers are always fun.

Yesterday my son Ben’s oil-pan on his 96 Jetta decided to blow a plug and spew all the oil in the car all over his mother’s driveway.  Spent half the night last night waiting for the CAA tow-truck to arrive, and then had to go to the east end this evening to pick up (and pay for) the repaired car with Ben.  So the activity around here has turned up a notch or two these days.  But … I blog, therefore I am.  

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

TU#171 – what’s that whistling noise?

TRADING UPDATE

Reversal systems run into problems when things don’t reverse.  Right now 20% of my equity is long 4 currently highly-correlated markets – gold, grains, oil, and gas – and on this program, I pretty-much went over the cliff Day 1.   And though my trading is to be short-term, with nary an up-tick in the past two weeks my commodity ETF reversal system has quickly become a “bet 100% the wrong way” system – with all the associated benefits.

I picked up a few more lots of the two markets that look like they haven’t got a hope in hell of stabilizing any time soon.

C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 171
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Bought	15%	HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	@	$17.79		ET
	Bought	14%	HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	@	$17.42		ET
	Bought	21%	HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	@	$7.89		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

There is plenty of room for soybeans to keep selling off, though wheat and corn look like they might have oversold.  Oil from this level (around $62) could easily go back down to $35 if the economy really stinks as badly as people again are beginning to suspect.   Yet today I own a little more of each.  One or two more days of straight down like this, and it will have to be battle stations and damage control.  The one time I decide not to hedge …. that’s the market for you. 

PORTFOLIO SUMMARY			7-Jul-09
			GAIN	WGT
COMMODITY ETFs				20.3%
REAP				79.7%
Total Equity (Cdn)			-31.0%	100.0%
**********************************************************************
C-ETF PORTFOLIO				C-ETF
(Cdn  Dollars)
Inception 24 JUN 09				-13.7%
CETF POSITIONS
ETF	SYM	LAST	GAIN%	WGT
HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	$16.60	-19.6%	30.8%
HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	$11.08	-3.9%	10.8%
HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	$4.31	-22.3%	18.4%
HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	$7.72	-10.1%	21.8%
Cash				18.2%
**********************************************************************
REAP PORTFOLIO	S&P500	S&P500	SP500	REAP	vs S&P
(US Dollars)			TOT RET
REF DATE	START	LAST	%	%	VAR
Inception MAR 07	1406.2	881.0	-33.0%	-28.6%	4.4%
Re-start OCT 07	1526.7	881.0	-42.3%	-29.1%	13.2%
2009 Year to Date	903.3	881.0	-2.5%	2.2%	4.7%
CDN DOLLAR	LAST	INCPT	VAR	Oct-07	VAR
	0.8585	0.8547	-0.4%	1.0069	14.7%
AVERAGE YIELD					1.30%
LEVERAGE (from 2x ETFs)				x	1.51

I’m too tired to think of anything new to say.  Time to crash.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

TU#170 – “I.O.U. $6B, Arnold Schwarzenegger”

TRADING UPDATE

There were no REAP trades - there haven’t been any now since June 22nd –  but there was plenty of (perhaps unwanted) action in commodities.

C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 170
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Bought	36%	HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	@	$11.11		ET
	Bought	20%	HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	@	$8.14		ET
	Bought	20%	HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	@	$4.49		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

These are taking a beating these days, and, being familiarly on the wrong side of the market, I’ve been additionally doing the “wrong” thing and accumulating.  I probably should be, but am not yet overly concerned, given the now 9.5% loss in the commodity ETF program.  My delusion is that ultimately the inflation play will again gain footing; as money-printing is not going to abate any time soon.  The example that really stands out in the past couple of days is the state of California.  They are so broke that they are literally printing IOUs – paper scrip.  They are issuing these IOUs in lieu of cash, and banks (for now) are accepting them.  This scrip has to be financed or monetized at some point, and either way, it is just another form of printing money.  Further, the US Treasury has to continue to roll over debt that comes due, plus issue more to cover new commitments (which will include state and municipal bailouts as the recession continues).  The more they print, the more the currency dilutes, and that is unsustainable.  That money will have to go somewhere.

The recent temporary strength of the US dollar is kicking the inflation trade in the shins right now, but I think the trend toward “hard assets” will persist.  It will occasionally be attenuated (that’s my word of the week – “attenuated“) by the lack of industrial demand in the weakest parts of the economy, but on the other hand could really take off if some major dollar-unfriendly news emerges.  And geo-political, environmental, and other supply disruptions will serve to support commodities from time to time.

Here are the stats as of the end of trading today.

PORTFOLIO SUMMARY			6-Jul-09
			GAIN	WGT
COMMODITY ETFs				20.9%
REAP				79.1%
Total Equity (Cdn)			-29.8%	100.0%
**********************************************************************
C-ETF PORTFOLIO				C-ETF
(Cdn  Dollars)
Inception 24 JUN 09				-9.5%
CETF POSITIONS
ETF	SYM	LAST	GAIN%	WGT
HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	$18.03	-16.3%	24.4%
HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	$11.02	-4.4%	10.2%
HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	$4.60	-17.1%	18.8%
HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	$8.18	-6.2%	18.2%
Cash				28.5%
**********************************************************************
REAP PORTFOLIO	S&P500	S&P500	SP500	REAP	vs S&P
(US Dollars)			TOT RET
REF DATE	START	LAST	%	%	VAR
Inception MAR 07	1406.2	898.7	-31.8%	-27.9%	3.9%
Re-start OCT 07	1526.7	898.7	-41.1%	-28.4%	12.7%
2009 Year to Date	903.3	898.7	-0.5%	3.3%	3.8%
CDN DOLLAR	LAST	INCPT	VAR	Oct-07	VAR
	0.8596	0.8547	-0.6%	1.0069	14.6%
AVERAGE YIELD					1.34%
LEVERAGE (from 2x ETFs)				x	1.51
CURRENCY MIX					100.0%
US Cash					11.3%
US Investments					75.8%
Other (Currency & Country ETFs)					12.9%
MARKET BIAS				NET LONG	33.3%
Cash					11.3%
Short					27.7%
Long					61.0%
THEME MIX					100.0%
Agriculture					4.0%
Energy					10.2%
Metals					10.5%
Other Commodity					2.1%
Short Commodity					3.1%
Country ETF					6.3%
Financial					5.1%
Health Care					0.0%
Infrastructure					2.2%
Real Estate					5.0%
Retail					0.0%
Technology					9.4%
Transportation					1.5%
Short Equity					20.3%
Short Bond					4.3%
Currency					4.6%
Cash					11.3%

REAP is holding up well  enough – the commodity ETFs are dodgy.  I’m probably over-committed here.  If the stock market continues downward, then commodities will probably follow for a while.  I’m going to have to keep an eye on this closely in the next couple of days.

Now I’m off to type up an IOU to the bank for my next mortgage payment.  California’s on to something here. 

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

Brazil 5-3 Argentina

Tonight in my men’s recreational soccer, my team Brazil took a 2-1 lead in games won against arch-rival Argentina, in a variant of soccer that you play in a swamp. 

It had been raining all day, and was raining when the game began.  We had 11 players to start, and the other team only 10, so we dominated and pretty quickly built up a 5-0 first half lead.  But is was interesting slogging – literally.  We have a few perennial dribblers who always want to see if they can go through 5 guys first before laying off a pass.  I’m surprised it took them as long as it did to adjust to the fact that when going through a puddle they would keep going but the ball would stay put.  Even the passing was interesting with all the water - too soft and the ball jerked to a halt; too hard and it would skip and overshoot.

At the half an 11th player for Argentina finally arrived, and then they started to kick our ass.  We were lucky to manage to keep it to only 3 goals, despite the fact that their keeper was a little wobbly and had let in a couple of soft ones in the first half.   We have two colourful latinos on our team, Victor and Carlos, the keeper.   The referee had the patience of Job for all the bitching and complaining, and I’m surprised (and grateful) that we weren’t down one or two men in the second half.  Carlos is particularly dramatic, and when Argentina scored their first goal, he went on a 5-minute tirade – mostly at our team.  The rest of us were looking at him going “what, you’ve never seen a skilled player before?  News flash – sometimes they score.”  But all in all, it’s not a bad thing to have a little passion on the team.

I haven’t been feeling well for the past week and played like a slug (some might say I always play like a slug).  But for all the pointless running around and misfired passes, I was able to make two small contributions.   I delivered a corner kick that my team-mates, after a brief scramble, put in the net for our fourth (and winning, as it turns out) goal, and after Carlos got injured toward the end of the game, I was able to hold a clean sheet for the remaining 8 minutes as replacement keeper, stopping a final flurry of shots.  Although that wasn’t terribly graceful.  I was able to push away a long curling ball going toward the right goal post, but it went to an opponent who was starting to turn on the ball to shoot.  I was close in on him and stopped his first attempt, and by then was on my stomach flailing around in a puddle trying to keep him from shooting it again over me or passing it off. I stopped it once more and then as I was starting to get up  a final shot ricocheted off my head straight up in the air, and when it came down one of my team-mates was able to finally clear it.  I thought I heard the comment “interesting style”.

Unfortunately Carlos’ shin was injured pretty badly.  I didn’t see the play, but an opponent slid into him cleats first as they were both going for the ball.  He later showed me his leg, and yep, those were cleat marks.  Aside from that, the bad news is Carlos likely won’t be playing keeper next week and I will.  Carlos in fact, still enraged over the whole thing (the other team also happened to score on the play), told me he wasn’t coming back at all.  But he says that every week, so who knows? 

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a George Parkanyi

TU#169 – quieter than dead

TRADING UPDATE

The US Markets were closed for tomorrow’s Independence Day holiday, yet some commodities still managed to trade somewhere, and somehow I managed to buy more oil.   The Toronto market was open, but really only for the paperwork.  We also had our Canada Day here on Wednesday.

C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 169
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Bought	24%	HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	@	$8.66		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

And the stats …

**********************************************************************
PORTFOLIO SUMMARY			2-Jul-09
			GAIN	WGT
COMMODITY ETFs				21.5%
REAP				78.5%
Total Equity (Cdn)			-28.9%	100.0%
**********************************************************************
C-ETF PORTFOLIO				C-ETF
(Cdn  Dollars)
Inception 24 JUN 09				-5.4%
CETF POSITIONS
ETF	SYM	LAST	GAIN%	WGT
HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	$19.31	-10.4%	25.0%
HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	$11.87	1.1%	6.7%
HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	$5.01	-13.6%	15.7%
HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	$8.75	-1.2%	14.9%
Cash				37.7%
**********************************************************************

If commodities are about to tank, then this might hurt a little.  You may see me retreating tail-between-legs in short order if that becomes more evident.  Meanwhile, I’ll run with scissors, go swimming right after eating - no, while eating, and continue to play with matches…

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

TU#168 – familiar territory

TRADING UPDATE

That would be trading commodities.  My new little scheme is already down 5.2%, and it’s all of one week old!

Today the grains ETF actually ended the day slightly positive, given the beating they’ve been taking, and gold stocks – in Canada anyway – were up a little.  There were probably some offsets in catching up to yesterday’s trading in US markets (in Canada it was a holiday).   But the real action was in energy, and both oil and natural gas got hammered.  And I ended up buying more …

C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 168
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price
	Bought	21%	HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	@	$5.33
	Bought	30%	HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	@	$9.07
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

And this leaves us with the following results.

**********************************************************************
PORTFOLIO SUMMARY			2-Jul-09
			GAIN	WGT
COMMODITY ETFs				21.6%
REAP				78.4%
Total Equity (Cdn)			-28.8%	100.0%
**********************************************************************
C-ETF PORTFOLIO				C-ETF
(Cdn  Dollars)
Inception 24 JUN 09				-5.2%
CETF POSITIONS
ETF	SYM	LAST	GAIN%	WGT
HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	$19.32	-10.4%	24.9%
HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	$11.90	1.4%	6.7%
HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	$5.03	-13.3%	15.8%
HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	$8.84	-0.7%	11.4%
Cash				41.2%
**********************************************************************

Since I’ve taken a bearish outlook for equities in the near-term, I’m starting to doubt whether its wise to be so long commodities, especially if the prognosis is for reduced economic activity.  Time to stay focused.

There were no REAP trades.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

Canada Day fireworks in slo-mo

About 45 minutes ago we walked back from the dog-park by the Rideau River where we watched the Canada Day fireworks display over Parliament Hill.  I’ve watched these a million times, so decided to bring the camera and see what I could pick up.  I was able to record one nice video segment, but the photos turned out to be slightly time-lapsed.   The camera wasn’t fast enough to provide a crisp image.   But there were some interesting effects.   Here are a few samples.

Jiggly starburst

 

Alien invasion

 

Return of the Pink Skull

 

Sperm mother-ship

 

Jellyfish down

 

Worm lightning

 

I don't know what you call that - but it's purty...

 

This is how life must look if you live in a lava lamp.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a George Parkanyi

Brazil 4 – Chile 1

This is a belated post, but, I felt I needed to report that Brazil in the Cumberland United Men’s Recreational 30+ league has moved to a 4-2 season record with last Friday’s fairly easy win over Chile.  The last time the teams played, I was away in New York and Chile won 4-3.  Clearly we now know what the difference was. 

The best I was able to contribute to Friday’s game was a solid 3 or 4 shifts in the midfield, being able to advance fairly usefully the balls that came my way.  But I couldn’t play much more than these few shifts, because I wasn’t feeling well at all from something that felt like a stomach flu and I was starting to fade  midway through the second half.  We had plenty of spare players, so I decided to call it quits about 3/4 of the way through the game. But as I was walking toward the car, lightning started to crack down nearby and the referee quickly called the game.  As it was, I made it to the car just as an intense downpour began, propelled by strong winds, with everyone else getting thoroughly soaked.

So the great Jorge (that would be me) now has 4 wins and 1 loss to his name – although I could use some of that action in the markets. 

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a George Parkanyi

Portfolio results for June 2009; up 2.3%

The portfolio managed a 2.3% gain in the month of June – no thanks to trading acumen.  This is more of a ”thanks man, I owe you one” to the Canadian dollar.

***********************************************************
MONTHLY RESULTS			JUN 09
REAP	USD		-2.5%
COMMODITY ETFS	CAD		-2.9%
PORTFOLIO EQUITY	CAD		2.3%
Canadian Dollar			-6.1%
***********************************************************

It would seem counter-intuitive that both programs lost money in the month and the portfolio gained, however, REAP is by far the larger of the two programs – all trading in US dollars now – and the drop in the Canadian dollar more than offset the monthly loss in both programs. 

Since I’ve split off a part to short-term trade commodity ETFs, I will continue to express the total equity performance (total of both programs) in Canadian dollars, the C-ETF trading also in Canadian dollars (it’s done in a Canadian account), but the REAP program in US dollars to make comparison with the S&P500 easier.

There was one trade on the last day of the month.  Bought some more grains in the CETF program.  As I’ve swung into an immediate loss after only 4 trading days in this new little experiment, I’m seeing now how this is going to be a great way to seriously embarrass myself in front of all my trading friends as I drift a little closer toward the way they trade.  “Nice flame-out, George.  What else have you got?” 

COMMODITY ETF TRADES
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Bought	14%	HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	@	$20.04		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

And that leaves us with all this stuff at the end of this month - CETFs down 2.9% on the year/month/week, and REAP up 4.9% in equity and 3.1% ahead of the S&P500.

PORTFOLIO SUMMARY			30-Jun-09
			GAIN	WGT
COMMODITY ETFs				21.8%
REAP				78.2%
Total Equity (Cdn)			-27.9%	100.0%
**********************************************************************
C-ETF PORTFOLIO				C-ETF
(Cdn  Dollars)
Inception 24 JUN 09				-2.9%
CETF POSITIONS
ETF	SYM	LAST	GAIN%	WGT
HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	$19.28	-10.5%	24.3%
HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	$11.68	-0.5%	6.4%
HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	$5.62	-5.0%	13.6%
HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	$9.80	11.2%	8.7%
Cash				47.1%
**********************************************************************
REAP PORTFOLIO	S&P500	S&P500	SP500	REAP	vs S&P
(US Dollars)			TOT RET
REF DATE	START	LAST	%	%	VAR
Inception MAR 07	1406.2	919.3	-30.3%	-26.8%	3.5%
Re-start OCT 07	1526.7	919.3	-39.8%	-27.3%	12.5%
2009 Year to Date	903.3	919.3	1.8%	4.9%	3.1%
CDN DOLLAR	LAST	INCPT	VAR	Oct-07	VAR
	0.86	0.8547	-0.6%	1.0069	14.6%
AVERAGE YIELD					1.41%
LEVERAGE (from 2x ETFs)				x	1.51
CURRENCY MIX					100.0%
US Cash					11.1%
US Investments					75.8%
Other (Currency & Country ETFs)					13.1%
MARKET BIAS				NET LONG	36.2%
Cash					11.1%
Short					26.4%
Long					62.5%
THEME MIX					100.0%
Agriculture					4.0%
Energy					11.1%
Metals					10.7%
Other Commodity					2.0%
Short Commodity					3.0%
Country ETF					6.3%
Financial					5.3%
Health Care					0.0%
Infrastructure					2.3%
Real Estate					5.1%
Retail					0.0%
Technology					9.7%
Transportation					1.5%
Short Equity					19.2%
Short Bond					4.2%
Currency					4.5%
Cash					11.1%
Portfolio Notes
Inception date is when I started tracking portfolio performance in
this blog.  I track it to reflect total performance after initial mistakes
and discretionary trading losses.  A more accurate representation
of REAP’s “pure” performance is as of 10 Oct 07, when I
re-established it after selling out the portfolio twice due to
sub-prime systemic concerns.
*** S&P Comparison is total return to reflect dividend re-investment
REAP GROUPS
STOCK	SYM	LAST	GAIN %	WGT	YLD
GROUP #1
ProSh Ultra Silver ETF	AGQ	$40.49	-3.53%	5.0%	0.00%
British Petroleum	BP	$47.68	2.22%	3.0%	7.15%
Buff Wld Wings	BWLD	$32.52	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
iSh Australia ETF	EWA	$16.80	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Garmin	GRMN	$23.82	8.41%	1.0%	3.42%
iPth Coffee ETF	JO	$35.73	-2.60%	1.6%	0.00%
GROUP #1
FTSE/Xinhua China ETF	FXI	$38.37	11.76%	3.2%	1.21%
Genesee & Wyoming	GWR	$26.51	9.01%	1.5%	0.00%
Nvidia	NVDA	$11.29	30.55%	5.4%	0.00%
UBS Ag Platinum ETF	PTM	$14.21	1.37%	3.2%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht SP500 ETF	SDS	$55.33	-4.29%	6.3%	1.00%
ProSh Ult Cr Oil ETF	UCO	$13.16	51.49%	2.8%	0.00%
GROUP #1
Clay Gl Lumber ETF	CUT	$13.37	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
iSh Singapore ETF	EWS	$9.02	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Formfactor	FORM	$17.28	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Rus2000 ETF	SKK	$32.88	-2.14%	1.7%	2.53%
Sun Hydraulics	SNHY	$16.17	-1.35%	2.3%	1.96%
ProSh USht Bonds ETF	TBT	$50.92	30.26%	4.2%	1.69%
GROUP #1
iPth Copper ETF	JJC	$31.59	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Nokia	NOK	$14.58	-4.30%	3.3%	3.93%
ProSh UlSht QQQ ETF	QID	$32.02	-19.95%	4.8%	2.02%
ProSh Ult RlEst ETF	URE	$3.56	4.23%	5.1%	7.42%
ProSh Ult JpYen ETF	YCL	$24.70	-5.05%	2.2%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Silver ETF	ZSL	$9.35	9.39%	3.0%	0.00%
GROUP #5
iPth Cotton ETF	BAL	$29.48	-8.87%	2.0%	0.00%
CME Group	CME	$311.12	34.55%	3.1%	1.99%
Drxn Energy Bull 3X ETF	ERX	$29.27	1.63%	2.3%	0.70%
Merck	MRK	$27.96	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Claym Gl Solar ETF	TAN	$9.54	3.29%	2.9%	0.00%
MkVec Gold Mng ETF	GDX	$37.82	-1.22%	2.5%	0.03%
GROUP #6
Broadcom	BRCM	$24.79	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Dow ETF	DXD	$47.90	-16.84%	6.4%	0.96%
iSh Hong Kong ETF	EWH	$13.74	9.61%	3.1%	5.86%
iPth Sugar ETF	SGG	$53.53	6.05%	2.4%	0.00%
ProSh Ult Euro ETF	ULE	$29.21	3.32%	2.3%	0.00%
ProSh Ult Financl ETF	UYG	$3.86	3.21%	2.2%	1.89%

The family’s banging on me right now to get off my butt and figure out an outing for us all on this Canada Day holiday.  And … we still have to book our accommodations on the Big Island for our upcoming Hawaii trip – we’re thinking half the week around Hilo and the volcanoes, and half around Kona and the west-side of the island.

Cheer,
Allocator
a.k.a George Parkanyi