TU#226 – shorting silver, … again

In REAP group 4,  the resident embedded trading ETF, symbol URE (double-long real-estate), gave a sell signal.  And what was down the most in its group?  ZSL, the silver double-short ETF.  These two guys have been trading position for quite some time, as they are the most volatile in the group, and seem to be pairing with each other all the time.  Stands to reason, as they’ve also been oppositely correlated for quite a while.  To its credit though, ZSL’s last trade was a sale, and that cash was rolled into URE at lower prices.  So, tit for tat.  This is the kind of stuff REAP and commodity ETF trading program is supposed to do.  But, when you’re trading a system, it’s not always pleasant taking trades that you strongly disagree with. 

REAP TRADES			Trading Update # 226
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
ETF	Sold	42%	ProSh Ult RlEst ETF	URE	@	$5.78		4
	Bought	45%	ProSh UlSht Silver ETF	ZSL	@	$4.68		4
REAP methodology detailed in the blogroll under “My Portfolio”
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

So now I’m really short silver again, with gold breaking new highs.  This to go with my dysfunctional emerging markets triple-short ETF EDZ.  This should be fun.

Can’t dally tonight, preparing for our Remembrance Day ceremony with Scouts tomorrow at the main event at the cenotaph in downtown Ottawa.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

TU#225 – throwing gold in the money pit

That’s what it felt like today taking a REAP trade to sell rocketing gold shares and plough them into a short emerging markets ETF just when emerging markets are likely going parabolic (curving sharply higher until shooting straight up – note that they only do that when I am short).  But, a signal is a signal.  So, in true bovine fashion …

REAP TRADES			Trading Update # 225
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
311	Sold	37%	MkVec Gold Mng ETF	GDX	@	$49.69		5
311	Bought	40%	Drx EMkt Bear 3X ETF	EDZ	@	$5.64		5
REAP methodology detailed in the blogroll under “My Portfolio”
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

Getting kicked around again.  The averages are screaming higher once more, but curiously commodities are OK, but except for gold, not really blasting off anywhere, and the tech and health stocks I rolled earlier profits into are actually going down in this rise, or not doing much of anything.  So, with a pretty good dose of things that should be going up that aren’t, and things that should be going down that aren’t, you have a declining equity situation – or at least I do.

Well, it is what it is and for now we plod on.

Cheers,
Allocator,
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

The sky is falling – but how fast? and where?

Severe recession. 10.2% unemployment.   Crushing debt.  Trillions hot off the presses.  The US is going to hell in a hand-basket. 

Or is it?

In my little debt-clock blurb a couple of posts ago I used the Economist’s global debt clock site as one of the references.  What they did was compile the public debt and GDP numbers for 100 or so countries, with a fancy mouse-over graphic to boot.  But they also provided a download file of the data.  So let’s have a peek, shall we?   Armageddon first.

The following data sets show the Gross Domestic Product, Public Debt, % of Debt to GDP, Population, Debt per capita, GDP per-capita, and a number I created myself which normalizes GDP per capita to take out the effect of leverage (the debt) – let’s call it True Productivity.

The first set ranks the countries from “worst” to “best” in terms of per-Capita public debt …

	Series	Nominal GDP (US$)	Pub. debt	Pub. debt % of GDP	Pop.	Public debt per capita	GDP /cap	Produc.
	Unit	bil USD	bil USD	%	mil.	USD	USD	USD
1	JAPAN	$  4,972	$9,490	190%	127	$74,680	$39,126	$13,492
2	ICELAND	$      15	$    17	111%	0	$51,821	$46,614	$22,145
3	NORWAY	$    381	$   206	51%	5	$42,652	$78,690	$52,078
4	BELGIUM	$    432	$   442	99%	11	$41,591	$40,709	$20,498
5	ITALY	$  2,067	$2,414	115%	58	$41,520	$35,564	$16,526
6	SINGAPORE	$    154	$   175	116%	5	$36,141	$31,906	$14,799
7	FRANCE	$  2,622	$2,057	77%	63	$32,872	$41,890	$23,613
8	GREECE	$    356	$   356	99%	11	$32,362	$32,425	$16,335
9	IRELAND	$    218	$   138	62%	4	$31,740	$50,278	$30,978
10	NETHERLD	$    784	$   514	65%	16	$31,200	$47,544	$28,849
11	AUSTRIA	$    377	$   250	66%	8	$29,854	$44,971	$27,173
12	GERMANY	$  3,098	$2,462	78%	83	$29,738	$37,414	$20,972
13	CANADA	$  1,319	$   998	72%	34	$29,625	$39,170	$22,747
14	SWITZERLD	$    462	$   211	46%	8	$27,309	$59,716	$40,901
15	U.K.	$  2,111	$1,494	68%	62	$24,147	$34,118	$20,260
16	U.S.A.	$13,958	$7,228	52%	307	$23,560	$45,498	$29,952
17	DENMARK	$    311	$   116	37%	6	$21,122	$56,424	$41,186
18	U.A.R.	$    227	$   116	51%	6	$21,084	$41,123	$27,180
19	ISRAEL	$    178	$   154	86%	7	$20,694	$23,968	$12,886
20	FINLAND	$    233	$   108	46%	5	$20,312	$43,803	$30,043
21	SWEDEN	$    363	$   172	46%	9	$18,590	$39,165	$26,807
22	SPAIN	$  1,404	$   829	58%	46	$18,124	$30,684	$19,384
23	PORTUGAL	$    220	$   183	82%	11	$17,152	$20,621	$11,324
24	HUNGARY	$    122	$    87	71%	10	$  8,804	$12,299	$  7,184
25	AUSTRALIA	$    864	$   159	19%	21	$  7,481	$40,662	$34,314
26	N ZEALAND	$      99	$    28	29%	4	$  6,380	$22,855	$17,690
27	CZECH REP.	$    182	$    61	33%	10	$  5,948	$17,835	$13,440
28	HONG KONG	$    211	$    41	20%	7	$  5,878	$29,922	$25,018
29	TAIWAN	$    342	$   124	36%	23	$  5,440	$14,986	$11,019
30	POLAND	$    383	$   202	50%	38	$  5,295	$10,062	$  6,694
31	SLOVAKIA	$      83	$    29	34%	5	$  5,270	$15,168	$11,294
32	S KOREA	$    743	$   228	30%	49	$  4,616	$15,035	$11,574
33	TURKEY	$    596	$   285	48%	73	$  3,922	$  8,214	$  5,553
34	SAU ARABIA	$    405	$    91	22%	26	$  3,547	$15,873	$12,979
35	MALAYSIA	$    196	$    98	49%	28	$  3,453	$  6,946	$  4,655
36	ARGENTINA	$    269	$   125	53%	40	$  3,113	$  6,699	$  4,381
37	BRAZIL	$  1,400	$   599	41%	194	$  3,084	$  7,204	$  5,102
38	VENEZUELA	$    350	$    68	20%	28	$  2,425	$12,422	$10,395
39	CUBA	$      55	$    27	38%	11	$  2,396	$  4,936	$  3,582
40	COLOMBIA	$    216	$    99	47%	48	$  2,053	$  4,476	$  3,053
41	THAILAND	$    248	$   123	49%	68	$  1,826	$  3,676	$  2,462
42	EGYPT	$    180	$   150	84%	83	$  1,807	$  2,163	$  1,173
43	BULGARIA	$      48	$    11	23%	7	$  1,522	$  6,407	$  5,192
44	ROMANIA	$    173	$    31	18%	21	$  1,449	$  8,075	$  6,855
45	S. AFRICA	$    262	$    70	35%	49	$  1,432	$  5,333	$  3,945
46	RUSSIA	$  1,283	$   188	15%	141	$  1,328	$  9,073	$  7,910
47	PERU	$    130	$    32	25%	29	$  1,099	$  4,416	$  3,533
48	CHILE	$    152	$    18	11%	17	$  1,064	$  8,985	$  8,065
49	PHILIPPINES	$    154	$    93	62%	94	$     989	$  1,638	$  1,012
50	IRAN	$    369	$    71	19%	74	$     954	$  4,980	$  4,174
51	SYRIA	$      54	$    17	31%	22	$     771	$  2,466	$  1,877
52	CHINA	$  4,933	$   935	19%	1334	$     701	$  3,699	$  3,114
53	INDONESIA	$    487	$   157	31%	240	$     654	$  2,026	$  1,542
54	INDIA	$  1,228	$   754	61%	1166	$     647	$  1,053	$     655
55	VIETNAM	$      94	$    48	51%	87	$     548	$  1,087	$     720
56	UKRAINE	$    119	$    21	18%	46	$     458	$  2,602	$  2,210
57	ALGERIA	$    161	$    16	10%	35	$     456	$  4,628	$  4,211
58	LIBYA	$      44	$      3	6%	6	$     427	$  6,853	$  6,453
59	PAKISTAN	$    167	$    73	45%	181	$     404	$     919	$     632
60	NIGERIA	$    132	$    27	21%	149	$     178	$     887	$     733
61	MEXICO	$    838	$      3	31%	111	$      23	$  7,532	$  5,772
62	SERBIA	$      43	$      0	35%	7	$      20	$  5,821	$  4,312

By this measure, in first place, Japan truly looks the basket-case everyone suspects it is.  The U.S. is up there in 16th spot, but … Belgium (4th), Italy (5th), France (7th), Netherlands (10th), and Germany (12th)?   Those sneaky Belgians.  When we thought they were quietly brewing Stella Artois and making chocolate, they were borrowing and spending like drunken sailors.  So everyone is stampeding into the Euro because? …

And Singapore is a surprise.  Must cost a lot of money to keep chewing gum off the sidewalks.

Now, let’s have a look at per-capita unleveraged productivity.  The higher the ranking the more productive the country in terms of its per-capita GDP.

	Series	Nominal GDP (US$)	Pub. debt	Pub. debt % of GDP	Pop.	Public debt per capita	GDP /cap	Produc.
	Unit	bil USD	bil USD	%	mil.	USD	USD	USD
1	NORWAY	$     381	$    206	51%	5	$ 42,652	$ 78,690	$52,078
2	DENMARK	$     311	$    116	37%	6	$ 21,122	$ 56,424	$41,186
3	SWITZERLAND	$     462	$    211	46%	8	$ 27,309	$ 59,716	$40,901
4	AUSTRALIA	$     864	$    159	19%	21	$   7,481	$ 40,662	$34,314
5	IRELAND	$     218	$    138	62%	4	$ 31,740	$ 50,278	$30,978
6	FINLAND	$     233	$    108	46%	5	$ 20,312	$ 43,803	$30,043
7	U.S.A.	$13,958	$ 7,228	52%	307	$ 23,560	$ 45,498	$29,952
8	NETHERLANDS	$     784	$    514	65%	16	$ 31,200	$ 47,544	$28,849
9	U.A.R.	$     227	$    116	51%	6	$ 21,084	$ 41,123	$27,180
10	AUSTRIA	$     377	$    250	66%	8	$ 29,854	$ 44,971	$27,173
11	SWEDEN	$     363	$    172	46%	9	$ 18,590	$ 39,165	$26,807
12	HONG KONG	$     211	$     41	20%	7	$   5,878	$ 29,922	$25,018
13	FRANCE	$  2,622	$ 2,057	77%	63	$ 32,872	$ 41,890	$23,613
14	CANADA	$  1,319	$    998	72%	34	$ 29,625	$ 39,170	$22,747
15	ICELAND	$      15	$     17	111%	0	$ 51,821	$ 46,614	$22,145
16	GERMANY	$  3,098	$ 2,462	78%	83	$ 29,738	$ 37,414	$20,972
17	BELGIUM	$     432	$    442	99%	11	$ 41,591	$ 40,709	$20,498
18	U.K.	$  2,111	$ 1,494	68%	62	$ 24,147	$ 34,118	$20,260
19	SPAIN	$  1,404	$    829	58%	46	$ 18,124	$ 30,684	$19,384
20	NEW ZEALAND	$      99	$     28	29%	4	$   6,380	$ 22,855	$17,690
21	ITALY	$  2,067	$ 2,414	115%	58	$ 41,520	$ 35,564	$16,526
22	GREECE	$     356	$    356	99%	11	$ 32,362	$ 32,425	$16,335
23	SINGAPORE	$     154	$    175	116%	5	$ 36,141	$ 31,906	$14,799
24	JAPAN	$  4,972	$ 9,490	190%	127	$ 74,680	$ 39,126	$13,492
25	CZECH REP.	$     182	$     61	33%	10	$   5,948	$ 17,835	$13,440
26	SAUDI ARABIA	$     405	$     91	22%	26	$   3,547	$ 15,873	$12,979
27	ISRAEL	$     178	$    154	86%	7	$ 20,694	$ 23,968	$12,886
28	SOUTH KOREA	$     743	$    228	30%	49	$   4,616	$ 15,035	$11,574
29	PORTUGAL	$     220	$    183	82%	11	$ 17,152	$ 20,621	$11,324
30	SLOVAKIA	$      83	$     29	34%	5	$   5,270	$ 15,168	$11,294
31	TAIWAN	$     342	$    124	36%	23	$   5,440	$ 14,986	$11,019
32	VENEZUELA	$     350	$     68	20%	28	$   2,425	$ 12,422	$10,395
33	CHILE	$     152	$     18	11%	17	$   1,064	$  8,985	$  8,065
34	RUSSIAN FED.	$  1,283	$    188	15%	141	$   1,328	$  9,073	$  7,910
35	HUNGARY	$     122	$     87	71%	10	$   8,804	$ 12,299	$  7,184
36	ROMANIA	$     173	$     31	18%	21	$   1,449	$  8,075	$  6,855
37	POLAND	$     383	$    202	50%	38	$   5,295	$ 10,062	$  6,694
38	LIBYA	$      44	$       3	6%	6	$     427	$  6,853	$  6,453
39	MEXICO	$     838	$       3	31%	111	$       23	$  7,532	$  5,772
40	TURKEY	$     596	$    285	48%	73	$   3,922	$  8,214	$  5,553
41	BULGARIA	$      48	$     11	23%	7	$   1,522	$  6,407	$  5,192
42	BRAZIL	$  1,400	$    599	41%	194	$   3,084	$  7,204	$  5,102
43	MALAYSIA	$     196	$     98	49%	28	$   3,453	$  6,946	$  4,655
44	ARGENTINA	$     269	$    125	53%	40	$   3,113	$  6,699	$  4,381
45	SERBIA	$      43	$       0	35%	7	$       20	$  5,821	$  4,312
46	ALGERIA	$     161	$     16	10%	35	$     456	$  4,628	$  4,211
47	IRAN	$     369	$     71	19%	74	$     954	$  4,980	$  4,174
48	S. AFRICA	$     262	$     70	35%	49	$   1,432	$  5,333	$  3,945
49	CUBA	$      55	$     27	38%	11	$   2,396	$  4,936	$  3,582
50	PERU	$     130	$     32	25%	29	$   1,099	$  4,416	$  3,533
51	CHINA	$  4,933	$    935	19%	1334	$     701	$  3,699	$  3,114
52	COLOMBIA	$     216	$     99	47%	48	$   2,053	$  4,476	$  3,053
53	THAILAND	$     248	$    123	49%	68	$   1,826	$  3,676	$  2,462
54	UKRAINE	$     119	$     21	18%	46	$     458	$  2,602	$  2,210
55	SYRIA	$      54	$     17	31%	22	$     771	$  2,466	$  1,877
56	INDONESIA	$     487	$    157	31%	240	$     654	$  2,026	$  1,542
57	EGYPT	$     180	$    150	84%	83	$   1,807	$  2,163	$  1,173
58	PHILIPPINES	$     154	$     93	62%	94	$     989	$  1,638	$  1,012
59	NIGERIA	$     132	$     27	21%	149	$     178	$     887	$     733
60	VIETNAM	$      94	$     48	51%	87	$     548	$  1,087	$     720
61	INDIA	$  1,228	$    754	61%	1166	$     647	$  1,053	$     655
62	PAKISTAN	$     167	$     73	45%	181	$     404	$     919	$     632

Winner Norway.  Yet Norway also ranked 3rd highest in per-capita public debt.  Hmmm.  Their gig is oil.  But what if oil prices halve, or production declines  Ouch.  Rush into the Krone if you must, but wouldn’t it be just easier to by some oil futures or an oil ETF?   And how about Denmark  in 2nd spot?  Who knew dairy and wind farms are the next best thing to oil?  The Swiss in third?  Well everyone sends their money there (or did until the UBS/IRS thing), so I get that.  Australia in fourth, sitting there shoveling stuff to China all day.  OK that works, and, they only have 19% of GDP public debt.  OK, I’m taking notes – they’re already this productive and they haven’t even started to gear up.  Ireland and Finland, 5th and 6th.  OK.  U.S.A. 7th, Netherlands eight…   U.S.A. 7th??  They’re more productive than China and India?  There must be a mistake.  Wait a minute. China, China … oh here it is … 51st??  India 61st? – second from last?  Brazil 42nd.  Russia 34th.  Maybe BRIC quite aptly describes these economies after all.

Again, the U.S. still seems to be in better shape than the Euro-zone economies, though granted, the gap may be closing with all the stimulus created in the current crisis.  But to sell the U.S. dollar down into oblivion seems to me a tad premature.  I wouldn’t be a big buyer of U.S. Treasuries given where interest rates are, but I wouldn’t be stampeding into gold either.  (Everyone else will be, and that’s why I’ll probably miss the greatest gold bull run in 30 years – which is about how often they happen.)

Now how accurate these numbers are, I don’t know.  They are from the Economist so you would expect some good British rigour, for the Empire.  If they at least used the same interpretation for debt and GDP for all countries, the relative comparison between countries could still be broadly valid. 

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

Data provided by The Economist.

TU#224 – trading soft commodities

… And not because they were cocoa, coffee,or sugar.  The trading action in commodities overall was all soft and mushy.  Oil and natural gas in particular both had a bad day, the actual softs and ags not a great day.  Surprisingly for some reason the Horizons BetaPro double long ag ETF (HAU) was strong, as was the gold shares ETF (HGU), and I sold some of both on yesterday’s signals at decent prices.  But that was about it – gold and this strange Canadian ag ETF.

REAP TRADES			Trading Update # 224
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
ETF	Bought	56%	Drx EMkt Bear 3X ETF	EDZ	@	$6.19		5
REAP methodology detailed in the blogroll under “My Portfolio”
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased
C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 224
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Sold	26%	HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	@	$17.53		ET
	Sold	36%	HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	@	$13.81		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

On the strength of yesterday’s rally and a little strength occasionally in equities today, the emerging markets triple-short ETF EDZ also came in as a buy on a C-ETF signal.  There was enough cash in the account so I didn’t have to sell anything else to fund it.

Talk about being in the wrong things at the wrong time.  Today commodities other than gold were generally down (I’m long those), the tech stocks REAP had been rolling them into earlier have also been weak, yet the averages have been firm to higher weakening my short ETF hedges as well!   The Canadian dollar is keeping things glued to together somewhat since it has also declined with commodities.

Oh well, we can’t all be geniuses.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

Debt clock proliferation

Cool.  Judging by all the debt clocks around, it would seem that financial armageddon disclosure has become trendy and fashionable.  In Germany there is a company that actually builds made-to order debt clocks – it’s a burgeoning industry.  Who knew?

So taking a little sampler, let’s see what we have.

The U.S. debt clock seems to be the grand-daddy of them all.  Texas size.  The U.S. national debt according to this one is at $11.932 trillion for a per-capita I.O.U. of $38,758 per U.S. citizen and $109,934 per tax-payer.  Hey kids – surprise!  With an annual GDP of $12.008 trillion, U.S. citizens can be happy to know that one year’s worth of hard work would pay off the debt (if they just bear down and don’t didn’t eat, house themselves or clothe themselves for that year).

Canadians are, let’s face it, just not as enterprising as Americans, and through their beer-drinking, hockey watching fog have only managed to accumulate a paltry CAD $497.3 billion, or CAD $14,803 per citizen/resident.  After adjusting for the exchange rate, in real paper dollars that would be an even lower $13,915 per-capita, a shameful 35.9% of what Americans have been able to do.  This all according to the debt clock sponsored by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.  Taxpayers federation? We’re lagging this far behind, and some people have the nerve to even throw around some attitude about it.

The U.K debt clock chooses not to take sides between its old colonies, and settles somewhere in the middle at $1.4 trillion or $22,561 per person.

Even Japan, the most indebted G-whatever nation by debt as a % of GDP has a debt clock.   How would you like you and yours to owe $94,952 each?  (I find it a little ironic that people use the yen as as a haven against the US dollar. I think I’d better be selling mine).

And the Economist magazine has actually taken on doing a global debt clock, showing a tally of everyone’s public debt ($45.689 trillion they say).  The only problem I see is that their numbers vary pretty dramatically from the debt clocks above.  Ah well, a trillion dollars sure ain’t what it used to be.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

TU#223 – a fart by any other name

I just came upon a humbling insight today.  Applying basic Aristotlean logic:

Natural Gas = Methane
Farts = Methane

Therefore:      Natural Gas = Farts

So that would make me a … fart trader, betting on a long-term fart recovery, with my leveraged fart ETF.  After all, farts are cleaner burning than oil, it doesn’t look like we’re running out of them any time soon, and you can even liquify and import more!  (That’s T Boone Pickens’ bet.  He actually wants to build fart-powered cars.)  The fart-drillers are having a tough time of it now, but surely they’ll be finding more, and more industries will convert to farts as their primary energy source.

And guess what I bought more of today …

C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 223
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Bought	29%	HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	@	$11.00		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

The symbol should be FRT.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

 

TU#222 – (some) techs blowing up

TRADING UPDATE

In the past couple of sessions, REAP trades have been rolling into tech stocks.  And the reason is that some of these stocks have really been coming off.  REAP just bought FormFactor (FORM) the other day at $17.20, and that stock peaked at $26 in this rally.  First Solar (FSLR), the alternative energy darling that just got added to the S&P500 was bought at $122.91.  That one had peaked at $208.  And now today I’m buying Garmin (GRMN), the GPS guys, at $27.61 after they reported record Q3 profit.  Traders and investors who bought it at $38 seven days ago can’t be too happy.  Garmin gapped up today at the opening by about $1 1/2 to $33 on the earnings news, and then proceeded to collapse and blow through “support” like a hot knife through butter as the S&P500 gave up 14 points of it earlier 15 point gain.  (Whatever the FED said today about their FOMC meeting couldn’t have been very interesting).  Pretty bearish action for the stock, as well as the market.

But to me, you know that modern economic civilization is finished when Warren Buffett splits his stock.  Stock splits used to be a classic bearish indicator for both individual stocks and markets, and the last guy you would expect or want to split his stock is Buffett.   What happened to “we want to make sure we have only committed long-term investors”?

Oh well, I still have short equity ETFs … and now more short gold equity ETFs!

REAP TRADES			Trading Update # 222
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
310	Sold	31%	iPth Coffee ETF	JO	@	$41.24		1
310	Bought	100%	Garmin	GRMN	@	$27.61		1
ETF	Sold	68%	ProSh Ultra Silver ETF	AGQ	@	$62.08		1
REAP methodology detailed in the blogroll under “My Portfolio”
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased
C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 222
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Bought	280%	HBP GoldSh Bear+ ETF	HGD	@	$4.75		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

We sold silver and coffee to buy the afore-discussed GRMN.  Additionally, another signal in the C-ETF account added back a chunk of the short gold shares ETF, with the overall effect of profit-taking on the recent precious metals blast-off, and a continuation of rolling commodity profits into beaten up techs.

The last couple of weeks have featured failed intra-day rally attempt after failed intra-day rally attempt.  And these failures are happening despite somewhat positive economic news.  Looks pretty soggy to me, though in this market who knows?

Caveat emptor.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a George Parkanyi

TU#221- India buying gold vs USD?

And that sent gold, and finally other commodities, for a romp today. Gold was up $31 an oz, presumably stoked by news that India had purchased $6.7B worth, about 200 tons, from another central bank to get out of US dollars (or…some central bank just dumped 200 tons of gold on the market to get into US dollars).  Thankfully I was pretty-much on the right side of this move, as I had virtually no short gold stocks ETF left, and was substantially net long gold and gold stocks, though net short silver – but not as much as before after having bought in to the long ETF to trade it in the REAP account using C-ETF signals as well as REAP signals.

So the precious metals worked out OK today, as did ags and oil that eventually followed suit. Even natural gas sat up.

 

REAP TRADES			Trading Update # 221
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
309	Sold	49%	ProSh Ultra Gold ETF	UGL	@	$43.95		4
309	Bought	100%	First Solar	FSLR	@	$122.91		4
ETF	Sold	29%	PwrSh DB Ag 2X ETF	DAG	@	$10.40		3
	Bought	100%	Myriad Genetics	MYGN	@	$25.85		3
REAP methodology detailed in the blogroll under “My Portfolio”
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

Today both REAP and C-ETF accounts moved ahead in their respective trading currencies, but a big move in the Canadian dollar pulled in the reins on REAP, and the day ended up a small loss in Canadian dollars.

REAP has come back fairly nicely given what a drag short ETFs have been on it since March. The REAP portfolio is up 6.0% in 2009, still underperfoming the S&P500 by 11.7%, but at least ahead. The commodity ETFs are still under water by 9.0%, but I think poised, with fairly large positions in depressed natural gas and ags. Some profit-taking is signalled for tomorrow in gold stocks, silver, and oil.

Is this the big break-out in gold? Don’t know. If I did …

Oh yeah, and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) made a takeover offer for railway Burlington-Northern, and are going to split the $3600 B-shares 50:1.

Cheers,

Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

TU#220 – skittish action in commodities

TRADING UPDATE

The commodity ETF portfolio started off November with a 1.2% loss, mostly thanks to natural gas, which seems to have resumed its skid row ways.  Starting in October, the double-long ETF HNU has gone straight down now from $17.47 to close at $11.38 today.  But, today’s trading wasn’t about gas.  It was ags and oil.

C-ETF TRADES			Trading Update # 220
#	Trade	Qty	Stock	Symbol		Price		Grp
	Bought	52%	HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	@	$9.66		ET
	Bought	39%	HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	@	$16.35		ET
Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased

It’s late so I can’t dally on this post.  Between REAP and C-ETF, I’m pretty heavily weighted in agricultural commodities now.  Not too bad a place to be I think, given they’ve come down a lot.  Gold had a big day, up $13.5 (December contract), but it closed pretty much on its low for the session, so who knows if that will last.  The dollar hype notwithstanding, I’m not terribly crazy about getting heavily long either gold or oil just right now, but that’s where things seem to be headed.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi

Portfolio results for October 2009 – up .7%

There was a lot of angst associated with that .7% gain.  At one point in October the Canadian dollar was 5 cents higher and the S&P500 about 50 points higher while I had an almost 30% net short weighting at one point.    I made a few adjustments, the Canadian dollar eased, and somehow lemons were made from lemonade.  This is what we end up with at the end of October.

***********************************************************
MONTHLY RESULTS			OCT09
REAP	USD		1.0%
COMMODITY ETFS	CAD		-4.7%
PORTFOLIO EQUITY	CAD		0.7%
Canadian Dollar			-1.3%
***********************************************************

Here were the standings at month end.

TOTAL PORTFOLIO			GAIN	WGT
COMMODITY ETFs				21.8%
REAP				78.2%
Total Equity (Cdn)			-32.7%	100.0%
**********************************************************************
C-ETF PORTFOLIO				C-ETF
(Cdn  Dollars)
Inception 24 JUN 09				-9.6%
CETF POSITIONS
ETF	SYM	LAST	GAIN%	WGT
HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF	HAU	$16.40	-5.2%	12.8%
HBP GoldSh Bear+ ETF	HGD	$5.58	4.9%	2.1%
HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF	HGU	$11.28	-11.5%	11.3%
HBP GoldSh Bear+ ETF	HND	$6.11	0.0%	0.0%
HBP NGas Bull+ ETF	HNU	$12.33	-7.1%	19.5%
HBP CrOil Bear+ ETF	HOD	$9.30	-10.1%	11.2%
HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF	HOU	$9.66	8.6%	9.6%
Cash				33.5%
Net Long C-ETF				40.0%
REAP PORTFOLIO	S&P500	S&P500	SP500	REAP	vs S&P
(US Dollars)			TOT RET
REF DATE	START	LAST	%	%	VAR
Inception MAR 07	1406.2	1,036.2	-21.4%	-26.7%	-5.3%
Re-start OCT 07	1526.7	1,036.2	-28.6%	-27.2%	1.4%
2009 Year to Date	903.3	1,036.2	16.7%	5.0%	-11.7%
CDN DOLLAR	LAST	INCPT	VAR	Oct-07	VAR
	0.9219	0.8547	-7.9%	1.0069	8.4%
AVERAGE YIELD					0.84%
LEVERAGE (from 2x ETFs)				x	1.69
CURRENCY MIX					100.0%
US Cash					2.9%
US Investments					58.8%
Commodity (USD Neutral)					35.1%
Other (Currency & Country ETFs)					3.3%
MARKET BIAS				NET LONG	7.5%
Cash					2.9%
Short					44.8%
Long					52.3%
THEME MIX					100.0%
Agriculture					19.2%
Energy					2.3%
Metals					13.5%
Other Commodity					0.0%
Short Commodity					4.8%
Country ETF					0.0%
Financial					4.2%
Health Care					0.0%
Infrastructure					0.0%
Real Estate					4.2%
Retail					0.0%
Technology					5.6%
Transportation					0.0%
Short Equity					36.8%
Short Bond					3.3%
Currency					3.3%
Cash					2.9%
Portfolio Notes
Inception date is when I started tracking portfolio performance in
this blog.  I track it to reflect total performance after initial mistakes
and discretionary trading losses.  A more accurate representation
of REAP’s “pure” performance is as of 10 Oct 07, when I
re-established it after selling out the portfolio twice due to
sub-prime systemic concerns.
*** S&P Comparison is total return to reflect dividend re-investment
REAP GROUPS
STOCK	SYM	LAST	GAIN %	WGT	YLD
GROUP #1
ProSh Ultra Silver ETF	AGQ	$54.59	-1.40%	2.5%	0.00%
ProSh Ult Oil & Gas ETF	DIG	$33.02	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Buff Wld Wings	BWLD	$41.01	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht QQQ ETF	QID	$24.16	-23.47%	10.1%	2.56%
Garmin	GRMN	$30.26	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
iPth Coffee ETF	JO	$39.25	2.21%	3.3%	0.00%
GROUP #2
ProSh Ult China ETF	XPP	$68.93	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Genesee & Wyoming	GWR	$29.01	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Nvidia	NVDA	$11.96	1.92%	2.5%	0.00%
UBS Ag Platinum ETF	PTM	$15.88	-2.30%	3.3%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht SP500 ETF	SDS	$41.41	-18.43%	8.7%	1.14%
ProSh Ult Cr Oil ETF	UCO	$13.20	29.78%	2.3%	0.00%
GROUP #3
MktVc Brazil SmCap ETF	BRF	$41.39	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
PwrSh DB Ag 2X ETF	DAG	$9.54	4.40%	6.2%	0.00%
Formfactor	FORM	$16.99	-9.42%	3.1%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Rus2000 ETF	SKK	$25.34	-13.82%	3.9%	2.89%
Myriad Genetics	MYGN	$24.28	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
ProSh USht Bonds ETF	TBT	$45.66	9.15%	3.3%	1.58%
GROUP #4
Sun Hydraulics	SNHY	$19.06	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
First Solar	FSLR	$121.93	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
ProSh Ult RlEst ETF	URE	$5.31	0.62%	4.2%	4.48%
ProSh Ultra Gold ETF	UGL	$41.25	-3.01%	3.2%	0.00%
ProSh Ult JpYen ETF	YCL	$28.01	-1.52%	3.3%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Silver ETF	ZSL	$5.40	-12.42%	4.8%	0.00%
GROUP #5
iPth Cotton ETF	BAL	$34.74	5.24%	3.5%	0.00%
CME Group	CME	$302.61	14.52%	2.7%	1.74%
Drx EMkt Bear 3X ETF	EDZ	$7.31	0.97%	4.0%	0.00%
Green Mtn Coffee	GMCR	$66.55	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
Claym Gl Solar ETF	TAN	$8.43	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
MkVec Gold Mng ETF	GDX	$42.37	-1.03%	4.5%	0.03%
GROUP #6
Broadcom	BRCM	$26.61	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
ProSh UlSht Dow ETF	DXD	$34.73	-27.08%	10.0%	1.16%
Drx Energy Bull 3X ETF	ERX	$41.81	0.00%	0.0%	0.00%
iPth Sugar ETF	SGG	$63.80	15.63%	2.9%	0.00%
iPth Livestock ETF	COW	$28.20	1.38%	3.4%	0.00%
ProSh Ult Financl ETF	UYG	$5.22	38.10%	1.5%	1.87%

So while not rocking anybody’s world with a .7% gain, considering where I was mid-month (about 6.5% lower in equity) – I’ll take it.

Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi