Today was a busy day. The stock rally continued, while oil broke, and natural gas broke hard. Gas moved so far and fast that both the Horizons BetaPro Natural Gas Bear+ (TSX:HND) and Bull+ (TSX:HNU) ETFs traded, with profit-taking in the former and the beginnings of re-building a position in the latter. I managed to get the trades in this morning before heading out to the beach at Pea Island, about 7-8 miles south of Nags Head in the Outer Banks (North Carolina). The weather was beautiful, and the surf strong and warm. And doing a little return butt-kicking in the markets for a change made for a perfect day.
The trades …
| REAP TRADES | ||||||||
| # | Trade | Qty | Stock | Symbol | Price | Grp | ||
| 60 | Sold | 33% | Trina Solar | TSL | @ | $31.88 | 5 | |
| 60 | Bought | 162% | HBP NGas ETF | HNU | @ | $30.22 | 5 | |
| 61 | Sold | 30% | HBP NGas Sht ETF | HND | @ | $10.20 | 1 | |
| 61 | Bought | 71% | Husky Energy | HSE | @ | $41.30 | 1 | |
| Reap methodology detailed in the blogroll under “My Portfolio” | ||||||||
| Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased | ||||||||
The box-score …
| PORTFOLIO SUMMARY | 17-Jul-08 | ||||
| (in $C, adjusted for $US exchange rates) | |||||
| PORTFOLIO | S&P500 | S&P500 | SP500 $C | REAP | vs S&P |
| Reference Date | Start | Last | % | % | Var. |
| Inception MAR 07 | 1395.4 | 1260.3 | -26.0% | -26.0% | 0.0% |
| Re-start OCT 07 | 1565.2 | 1260.3 | -18.2% | -13.8% | 4.5% |
| 2008 Year to Date | 1468.4 | 1260.3 | -12.4% | -4.3% | 8.1% |
| Discretionary Trading P&L (included in above results) | -5.5% | ||||
| Dividend Yield (current) | 0.91% | ||||
| Canadian dollar | Last | Inceptn | Var. | Restart | Var. |
| 0.9943 | 0.8547 | -16.3% | 1.0069 | 1.3% | |
| Currency Mix | |||||
| Canadian Investments/Cash | 33.2% | ||||
| US Investments | 61.2% | ||||
| Other (country ETFs) | 5.6% | ||||
| Market Bias | Long | 50.7% | |||
| Cash | 0.7% | ||||
| Net Short | 24.3% | ||||
| Net Long | 75.0% | ||||
| Theme Mix | |||||
| Energy / Commodity | 13.2% | ||||
| Short Commodities | 15.9% | ||||
| Environment / Infrastructure | 8.5% | ||||
| Financial | 11.7% | ||||
| Health Care | 10.2% | ||||
| Technology | 14.0% | ||||
| Short Equities | 8.4% | ||||
| Transportation | 8.5% | ||||
| Hospitality | 3.2% | ||||
| Asia | 5.6% | ||||
| Cash | 0.7% | ||||
| Portfolio Notes | |||||
| Inception date is when I started tracking portfolio performance in | |||||
| this blog. I track it to reflect total performance after initial mistakes | |||||
| and discretionary trading losses. A more accurate representation | |||||
| of REAP’s “pure” performance is as of 10 Oct 07, when I | |||||
| re-established it after selling out the portfolio twice due to | |||||
| sub-prime systemic concerns. | |||||
| CANADIAN MARKET HOLDINGS | |||||
| Stock | Sym | Cost | Last | Gain % | Weight |
| Husky Energy | HSE | $42.15 | $41.25 | -2.14% | 3.2% |
| HBP NGas Sht ETF | HND | $10.77 | $10.30 | -4.32% | 3.2% |
| HBP Gold Sht ETF | HGD | $9.98 | $8.52 | -14.60% | 3.4% |
| ING Canada | IIC | $41.12 | $37.85 | -7.96% | 3.4% |
| HBP Ag Bull+ ETF | HAU | $16.53 | $17.16 | 3.84% | 1.1% |
| HBP Oil Sht ETF | HOD | $11.13 | $7.92 | -28.87% | 5.6% |
| IGM Financ’l | IGM | $42.08 | $40.37 | -4.06% | 2.5% |
| HBP Ag Bear+ ETF | HAD | $22.35 | $19.45 | -12.96% | 3.7% |
| Precsn Drilling | PD.UN | $17.65 | $22.90 | 29.75% | 3.8% |
| HBP NGas ETF | HNU | $27.88 | $28.69 | 2.89% | 2.6% |
| US MARKET HOLDINGS | $C Adj | ||||
| Stock | Sym | Cost | Last | Gain % | Weight |
| Broadcom | BRCM | $26.12 | $29.07 | 11.94% | 1.9% |
| Gen & Wyom | GWR | $25.56 | $39.28 | 54.58% | 4.3% |
| PrSh S&P Sh ETF | SDS | $63.30 | $69.44 | 10.33% | 2.0% |
| PrSh Ultra Financ’l | UYG | $25.16 | $19.56 | -21.80% | 5.8% |
| ISh Australia ETF | EWA | $26.59 | $25.67 | -2.92% | 2.7% |
| Formfactor | FORM | $26.57 | $20.05 | -24.10% | 3.0% |
| Harley Davidson | HOG | $49.90 | $38.73 | -21.94% | 4.1% |
| Roch. Medical | ROCM | $12.37 | $10.68 | -13.17% | 2.6% |
| Forest Labs | FRX | $35.70 | $36.17 | 1.89% | 4.6% |
| Nvidia | NVDA | $23.05 | $11.36 | -50.44% | 3.4% |
| PrSh Rus2000 Sh ETF | SKK | $81.18 | $73.39 | -9.07% | 2.6% |
| Buff Wld Wings | BWLD | $29.29 | $28.29 | -2.86% | 3.2% |
| Cree Inc | CREE | $26.96 | $20.80 | -22.41% | 2.5% |
| PrSh Dow Sh ETF | DXD | $54.46 | $63.64 | 17.52% | 1.1% |
| iSh Asia ex-Japn | EPP | $135.60 | $132.29 | -1.88% | 2.9% |
| Credo Petrlm | CRED | $11.39 | $11.62 | 2.57% | 2.5% |
| Q-Logic | QLGC | $15.95 | $16.72 | 5.42% | 5.8% |
| PrSh NASD Sht ETF | QID | $45.37 | $44.68 | -0.95% | 2.7% |
| PrSh Ultra Health ETF | RXL | $56.38 | $57.23 | 2.08% | 3.1% |
| Sun Hydr’lics | SNHY | $24.85 | $35.27 | 42.76% | 2.5% |
| Trina Solar | TSL | $35.67 | $30.61 | -13.69% | 3.4% |
The S&P gained on REAP slightly, but REAP is still most certainly working as planned, especially in 2008 with the improved non-correlation and volatility provided by the 2x leveraged commodity and equity ETFs. How about that Trina Solar! – that’s the 13th time this stock has traded - 6 sells and 7 buys. The average is 3.5 trades per stock/ETF.
Natural gas is behaving more like it has traditionally – sharp jagged moves both up and down. This long recent sweeping uptrend was not typical of this market. There could soon be a sharp reaction rally in gas that could trigger trades going the other way for HNU and HND. That would be fun.
Oil has come off quite a bit as well, and if it goes a little further the HBP Crude Oil Bear+ ETF (TSX:HOD) will deliver its first profit-taking contribution. Until now it’s been all one way – down – during the big oil rally up to $148, and all I’ve been doing is accumulating more and more of it.
And now it’s time for our sea-food barbeque extravaganza – shrimp, clams, and sea-bass. 
Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a George Parkanyi
gparkanyi@hotmail.com
Copyright 2008 – all rights reserved
