REAP provided another signal today, thanks to the huge move in the ProShares Ultra Real-Estate ETF (URE) – 22% in 2 days. I added it to the portfolio just last Friday when the financials and real-estate ETFs had pulled back a ways. Today, pretty much at its peak, it paired up with the ProShares Nasdaq double-short ETF (QID), which was down from the follow-through from yesterday’s rally.
| REAP TRADES | Trading Update # 152 | |||||||
| # | Trade | Qty | Stock | Symbol | Price | Grp | ||
| 267 | Sold | 31% | ProSh Ult Rl Estate ETF | URE | @ | $3.87 | 4 | |
| 267 | Bought | 58% | ProSh UlSht QQQ ETF | QID | @ | $35.28 | 4 | |
| REAP methodology detailed in the blogroll under “My Portfolio” | ||||||||
| Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased | ||||||||
Through the rest of the session, URE pulled back 8.5%, while QID jumped 4.4% for a whopping 12.9% intra-day swing relative to each other. This is as good as it gets for timing intra-day re-allocations. Just lucky though.
I’m very pleased that the current weightings have worked out so well recently. The portfolio ended the day 3.7% ahead of the S&P500 for the year on the further strength of commodities – energies in particular.
| PORTFOLIO SUMMARY | 20-May-09 | ||||
| (in $C, adjusted for $US exchange rates) | |||||
| PORTFOLIO | S&P500 | S&P500 | SP500 $C | REAP | vs S&P |
| Tot Retrn | |||||
| Reference Date | Start | Last | % | % | Var. |
| Inception MAR 07 | 1406.2 | 903.5 | -34.1% | -29.3% | 4.7% |
| Re-start OCT 07 | 1526.7 | 903.5 | -25.0% | -17.1% | 7.9% |
| 2009 Year to Date | 903.3 | 903.5 | -6.2% | -2.5% | 3.7% |
| Discretionary Trading P&L (included in above results) | -5.7% | ||||
| Canadian dollar | Last | Inceptn | Var. | Restart | Var. |
| 0.8757 | 0.8547 | -2.5% | 1.0069 | 13.0% | |
| Dividend Yield (current) | 1.59% | ||||
| Intrinsic leverage (from 2x ETFs) | x | 1.48 | |||
| Currency Mix | 100.0% | ||||
| Canadian Investments/Cash | 24.1% | ||||
| US Investments | 71.3% | ||||
| Other (Currency & Country ETFs) | 4.6% | ||||
The great thing about it is that this is after carrying the 14.6% portfolio weighting in double-short equity ETFs all the way from S&P500 666. These have been losing money, but are poised to kick in on the next pullback, providing some useful defence and a source of funds for long-side purchases. Today’s trade added a little to this short position. I had expected to be doing worse than the S&P500 by now considering the distance this rally has gone. (Could still happen) 
Tonight our little scout troop cleaned up Strathcona Park in the Sandy Hill district of Ottawa not all that far from downtown – picking up garbage and cigarette butts. Apart from the odd dead body in the bushes, it wasn’t all that taxing, and it was a pleasant, warm evening. As I was cleaning up the hillside on the north end of the park, a couple were running up and down the stairs as part of their exercise regime. Resisting the urge to say “Lost?” I instead asked the guy “So how’s this running up and down the stairs thing working out for you, then?” “Oh, pretty good” he squeaked in between gasps. Not terribly convinced, I gave him a “Good luck with that” look and was drawn away by the glint of a distant chocolate-bar wrapper.
As you do this for a while, you get a little obsessed, because now you don’t want to miss anything as you strive for perfection. I can just see myself tomorrow walking around the complex at work intensely scanning the ground for cigarette butts and then colliding with a senior executive in a spectacular explosion of coffee.
Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi
