TRADING UPDATE
There were no REAP trades - there haven’t been any now since June 22nd – but there was plenty of (perhaps unwanted) action in commodities.
| C-ETF TRADES | Trading Update # 170 | |||||||
| # | Trade | Qty | Stock | Symbol | Price | Grp | ||
| Bought | 36% | HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF | HGU | @ | $11.11 | ET | ||
| Bought | 20% | HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF | HOU | @ | $8.14 | ET | ||
| Bought | 20% | HBP NGas Bull+ ETF | HNU | @ | $4.49 | ET | ||
| Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased | ||||||||
These are taking a beating these days, and, being familiarly on the wrong side of the market, I’ve been additionally doing the “wrong” thing and accumulating. I probably should be, but am not yet overly concerned, given the now 9.5% loss in the commodity ETF program. My delusion is that ultimately the inflation play will again gain footing; as money-printing is not going to abate any time soon. The example that really stands out in the past couple of days is the state of California. They are so broke that they are literally printing IOUs – paper scrip. They are issuing these IOUs in lieu of cash, and banks (for now) are accepting them. This scrip has to be financed or monetized at some point, and either way, it is just another form of printing money. Further, the US Treasury has to continue to roll over debt that comes due, plus issue more to cover new commitments (which will include state and municipal bailouts as the recession continues). The more they print, the more the currency dilutes, and that is unsustainable. That money will have to go somewhere.
The recent temporary strength of the US dollar is kicking the inflation trade in the shins right now, but I think the trend toward “hard assets” will persist. It will occasionally be attenuated (that’s my word of the week – “attenuated“) by the lack of industrial demand in the weakest parts of the economy, but on the other hand could really take off if some major dollar-unfriendly news emerges. And geo-political, environmental, and other supply disruptions will serve to support commodities from time to time.
Here are the stats as of the end of trading today.
| PORTFOLIO SUMMARY | 6-Jul-09 | ||||
| GAIN | WGT | ||||
| COMMODITY ETFs | 20.9% | ||||
| REAP | 79.1% | ||||
| Total Equity (Cdn) | -29.8% | 100.0% | |||
| ********************************************************************** | |||||
| C-ETF PORTFOLIO | C-ETF | ||||
| (Cdn Dollars) | |||||
| Inception 24 JUN 09 | -9.5% | ||||
| CETF POSITIONS | |||||
| ETF | SYM | LAST | GAIN% | WGT | |
| HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF | HAU | $18.03 | -16.3% | 24.4% | |
| HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF | HGU | $11.02 | -4.4% | 10.2% | |
| HBP NGas Bull+ ETF | HNU | $4.60 | -17.1% | 18.8% | |
| HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF | HOU | $8.18 | -6.2% | 18.2% | |
| Cash | 28.5% | ||||
| ********************************************************************** | |||||
| REAP PORTFOLIO | S&P500 | S&P500 | SP500 | REAP | vs S&P |
| (US Dollars) | TOT RET | ||||
| REF DATE | START | LAST | % | % | VAR |
| Inception MAR 07 | 1406.2 | 898.7 | -31.8% | -27.9% | 3.9% |
| Re-start OCT 07 | 1526.7 | 898.7 | -41.1% | -28.4% | 12.7% |
| 2009 Year to Date | 903.3 | 898.7 | -0.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
| CDN DOLLAR | LAST | INCPT | VAR | Oct-07 | VAR |
| 0.8596 | 0.8547 | -0.6% | 1.0069 | 14.6% | |
| AVERAGE YIELD | 1.34% | ||||
| LEVERAGE (from 2x ETFs) | x | 1.51 | |||
| CURRENCY MIX | 100.0% | ||||
| US Cash | 11.3% | ||||
| US Investments | 75.8% | ||||
| Other (Currency & Country ETFs) | 12.9% | ||||
| MARKET BIAS | NET LONG | 33.3% | |||
| Cash | 11.3% | ||||
| Short | 27.7% | ||||
| Long | 61.0% | ||||
| THEME MIX | 100.0% | ||||
| Agriculture | 4.0% | ||||
| Energy | 10.2% | ||||
| Metals | 10.5% | ||||
| Other Commodity | 2.1% | ||||
| Short Commodity | 3.1% | ||||
| Country ETF | 6.3% | ||||
| Financial | 5.1% | ||||
| Health Care | 0.0% | ||||
| Infrastructure | 2.2% | ||||
| Real Estate | 5.0% | ||||
| Retail | 0.0% | ||||
| Technology | 9.4% | ||||
| Transportation | 1.5% | ||||
| Short Equity | 20.3% | ||||
| Short Bond | 4.3% | ||||
| Currency | 4.6% | ||||
| Cash | 11.3% | ||||
REAP is holding up well enough – the commodity ETFs are dodgy. I’m probably over-committed here. If the stock market continues downward, then commodities will probably follow for a while. I’m going to have to keep an eye on this closely in the next couple of days.
Now I’m off to type up an IOU to the bank for my next mortgage payment. California’s on to something here. 
Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi
