TRADING UPDATE
Reversal systems run into problems when things don’t reverse. Right now 20% of my equity is long 4 currently highly-correlated markets – gold, grains, oil, and gas – and on this program, I pretty-much went over the cliff Day 1. And though my trading is to be short-term, with nary an up-tick in the past two weeks my commodity ETF reversal system has quickly become a “bet 100% the wrong way” system – with all the associated benefits.
I picked up a few more lots of the two markets that look like they haven’t got a hope in hell of stabilizing any time soon.
| C-ETF TRADES | Trading Update # 171 | |||||||
| # | Trade | Qty | Stock | Symbol | Price | Grp | ||
| Bought | 15% | HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF | HAU | @ | $17.79 | ET | ||
| Bought | 14% | HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF | HAU | @ | $17.42 | ET | ||
| Bought | 21% | HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF | HOU | @ | $7.89 | ET | ||
| Qty % are amount by which shares counts are decreased/increased | ||||||||
There is plenty of room for soybeans to keep selling off, though wheat and corn look like they might have oversold. Oil from this level (around $62) could easily go back down to $35 if the economy really stinks as badly as people again are beginning to suspect. Yet today I own a little more of each. One or two more days of straight down like this, and it will have to be battle stations and damage control. The one time I decide not to hedge …. that’s the market for you. 
| PORTFOLIO SUMMARY | 7-Jul-09 | ||||
| GAIN | WGT | ||||
| COMMODITY ETFs | 20.3% | ||||
| REAP | 79.7% | ||||
| Total Equity (Cdn) | -31.0% | 100.0% | |||
| ********************************************************************** | |||||
| C-ETF PORTFOLIO | C-ETF | ||||
| (Cdn Dollars) | |||||
| Inception 24 JUN 09 | -13.7% | ||||
| CETF POSITIONS | |||||
| ETF | SYM | LAST | GAIN% | WGT | |
| HBP DJIA Ag Bull+ ETF | HAU | $16.60 | -19.6% | 30.8% | |
| HBP GoldSh Bull+ ETF | HGU | $11.08 | -3.9% | 10.8% | |
| HBP NGas Bull+ ETF | HNU | $4.31 | -22.3% | 18.4% | |
| HBP CrOil Bull+ ETF | HOU | $7.72 | -10.1% | 21.8% | |
| Cash | 18.2% | ||||
| ********************************************************************** | |||||
| REAP PORTFOLIO | S&P500 | S&P500 | SP500 | REAP | vs S&P |
| (US Dollars) | TOT RET | ||||
| REF DATE | START | LAST | % | % | VAR |
| Inception MAR 07 | 1406.2 | 881.0 | -33.0% | -28.6% | 4.4% |
| Re-start OCT 07 | 1526.7 | 881.0 | -42.3% | -29.1% | 13.2% |
| 2009 Year to Date | 903.3 | 881.0 | -2.5% | 2.2% | 4.7% |
| CDN DOLLAR | LAST | INCPT | VAR | Oct-07 | VAR |
| 0.8585 | 0.8547 | -0.4% | 1.0069 | 14.7% | |
| AVERAGE YIELD | 1.30% | ||||
| LEVERAGE (from 2x ETFs) | x | 1.51 | |||
I’m too tired to think of anything new to say. Time to crash.
Cheers,
Allocator
a.k.a. George Parkanyi
