… I started getting short a frisky market while at the same time all my longs started simultaneously disintegrating. So the short positions are losing for now, but precious metal stocks in particular – a heavy current weighting – suddenly decided to tank as well, so the portfolio had a resoundingly down day while stocks markets in general had a good one. The S&P500 picked up just 6.5 points, but it was a steady sloping rise that flattened out but still held into the close.
There were 6 trades in all, two of which was me replacing big-cap gas producer ECA with the riskier HNU – the 2x ETF of the actual commodity. I sold off HNU back at the beginning of December at over $10, and swapped it back into the portfolio at $4.33. The move is based on my assessment of natural gas futures being hammered down to $2.32 mBTU as putting it into a good risk reward range going forward. At this point the chances are fairly good that you could get a short-covering or weather-related spike, or just a useful sideways range that will work well with ERTS. I see ECA itself as having more risk now with gas prices being so low and its revenues bound to get hit hard. There’s also the risk now of a dividend cut. So I did the swap. Whether or not this was a smart move remains to be seen.
| TRADING | 19-Jan-12 | UPDATE | 665 | |||||
| # | Trade | Qty | Stock | Symbol | Price | Acct | ||
| 3 | Sold | 3.1% | Cenovus Energy | CVE | @ | $36.00 | 1 | |
| 13 | Bought | 2.2% | Drxn Em Mkt 3x Sh ETF | EDZ | @ | $15.06 | 2 | |
| 11 | Bought | 2.2% | Drxn Tech 3x Sh ETF | TYP | @ | $13.61 | 2 | |
| 8 | Sold | 2.4% | Drxn Energy 3X ETF | ERX | @ | $50.92 | 2 | |
| 18 | Sold | 6.3% | EnCana Corp | ECA | @ | $17.70 | 4 | |
| 20 | Bought | 6.5% | HBP Nat Gas 2X ETF | HNU | @ | $4.33 | 4 | |
| Qty % is the portfolio weighting | ||||||||
| EXTENSION REVERSAL TRADING SYSTEM (ERTS) | ||||
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| 19-Jan-12 | ||||
| S&P500 | 1314.5 | 6.5 | 0.5% | |
| TSX | 12380.7 | 53.2 | 0.4% | |
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| PORTFOLIO STATUS | ||||
| Market | JAN 12 | YTD | Incep | |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.9888 | 1.0% | 1.0% | -4.7% |
| S&P500 | 1314.5 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| TSX | 12380.7 | 3.6% | 3.6% | -7.3% |
| Weight | ||||
| Portfolio % USD | 35.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 12.9% |
| Portfolio % CAD | 64.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | -6.3% |
| FX | ||||
| PORTFOLIO EQUITY | CAD | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
| USD ERTS vs SP500 | USD | -4.3% | -4.3% | 10.2% |
| CAD ERTS vs TSX | CAD | -1.3% | -1.3% | 1.0% |
| ERTS vs SP500/TSX | CAD/USD | -2.4% | -2.4% | 4.3% |
| Inception is 30 Jun 11 | ||||
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| Portfolio Direction | Long | Short | Net | |
| Position | 25.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | long |
| ETF Leverage-adjusted | 51.9% | 38.4% | 13.5% | long |
| CURRENT POSITIONS | ||||
| STOCK/ETF | SYM | LAST | Profit | WGT |
| CASH | 61.6% | |||
| Potash Corp | POT | $46.10 | 0.74% | 2.8% |
| Drxn Gold Sh 3X ETF | NUGT | $20.09 | 0.44% | 5.0% |
| HBP Glb Gold 2X ETF | HGU | $11.89 | 0.36% | 8.5% |
| Drxn Real Est 3X ETF | DRN | $55.54 | 0.34% | 0.7% |
| Silver Wheaton | SLW | $31.06 | 0.28% | 2.3% |
| Cenovus Energy | CVE | closed | 0.28% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Energy 3X ETF | ERX | closed | 0.25% | 0.0% |
| Cameco | CCO | closed | 0.23% | 0.0% |
| Teck Corp | TCK.B | closed | 0.19% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Gold Sh 3X Sh ETF | DUST | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Tech 3x ETF | TYH | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Claymore BRIC ETF | CBQ | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Em Mkt 3x ETF | EDC | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Real Est 3X Sh ETF | DRV | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| HBP Glb Gold 2X Sh ETF | HGD | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Energy 3X Sh ETF | ERY | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Em Mkt 3x Sh ETF | EDZ | $14.89 | -0.22% | 4.3% |
| HBP Nat Gas 2X ETF | HNU | $4.18 | -0.23% | 6.3% |
| EnCana Corp | ECA | closed | -0.36% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Tech 3x Sh ETF | TYP | $13.51 | -0.58% | 8.5% |
…
