Makes me look like a genius, considering I swapped out the unleveraged Encana position for a 2x leveraged ETF position in gas itself just two trading sessions ago. But truth be told, my reasoning (I did not crunch a single number) was that gas looked really sold down and this looked like “about right” for where a rally might spring from, and the thing could have been down 18% just as easily as it was up 18% at the close today. Because rallies in this brutal bear market that started in July of 2008 have been rather fleeting – there have been some good ones but they haven’t lasted long – I wasn’t about to let a two-day 16% profit vaporize without taking at least something away. So I sold one tranche at $5.02, leaving three in play per the normal parameters of ERTS (the trading system). I opened the position at $4.33. If the rally continues, this will be very profitable. If it doesn’t, at least I took a useful partial profit and have the means to buy back that tranche at lower prices and just keep grinding it out.
I did some analysis over the weekend, and it looks like using a weekly time frame rather than daily will produce as good as, or better results than the current daily, with the added bonus of cutting trades down by a factor of 5 (reducing transaction costs). So that’s what I’ve implemented – though you wouldn’t know it based on today’s 4 trades. Besides the gas sale, ERTS sold the one tranche of SLW and bought two more short ETFS, shifting the leverage-adjusted portfolio bias to 16% net-short. I would have had a losing day had it not been that power-pop in gas.
| TRADING | 23-Jan-12 | UPDATE | 667 | |||||
| # | Trade | Qty | Stock | Symbol | Price | Acct | ||
| 13 | Bought | 2.2% | Drxn Em Mkt 3x Sh ETF | EDZ | @ | $14.70 | 2 | |
| 7 | Bought | 2.2% | Drxn Real Est 3X Sh ETF | DRV | @ | $34.94 | 2 | |
| 17 | Sold | 2.4% | Silver Wheaton | SLW | @ | $31.74 | 3 | |
| 20 | Sold | 1.9% | HBP Nat Gas 2X ETF | HNU | @ | $5.02 | 4 | |
| Qty % is the portfolio weighting | ||||||||
| EXTENSION REVERSAL TRADING SYSTEM (ERTS) | ||||
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| 23-Jan-12 | ||||
| S&P500 | 1316.0 | 0.6 | 0.0% | |
| TSX | 12521.7 | 124.6 | 1.0% | |
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| PORTFOLIO STATUS | ||||
| Market | JAN 12 | YTD | Incep | |
| Canadian Dollar | 0.9924 | 1.3% | 1.3% | -4.3% |
| S&P500 | 1316.0 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.3% |
| TSX | 12521.7 | 4.7% | 4.7% | -6.8% |
| Weight | ||||
| Portfolio % USD | 34.9% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 12.3% |
| Portfolio % CAD | 65.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | -4.0% |
| FX | ||||
| PORTFOLIO EQUITY | CAD | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| USD ERTS vs SP500 | USD | -4.9% | -4.9% | 9.0% |
| CAD ERTS vs TSX | CAD | -0.2% | -0.2% | 2.8% |
| ERTS vs SP500/TSX | CAD/USD | -1.9% | -1.9% | 4.9% |
| Inception is 30 Jun 11 | ||||
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| Portfolio Direction | Long | Short | Net | |
| Position | 22.2% | 20.9% | 1.2% | long |
| ETF Leverage-adjusted | 46.9% | 62.8% | -16.0% | short |
| CURRENT POSITIONS | ||||
| STOCK/ETF | SYM | LAST | Profit | WGT |
| CASH | 56.9% | |||
| HBP Nat Gas 2X ETF | HNU | $5.09 | 1.13% | 5.7% |
| Potash Corp | POT | $45.93 | 0.73% | 2.7% |
| Drxn Gold Sh 3X ETF | NUGT | $21.15 | 0.70% | 5.2% |
| HBP Glb Gold 2X ETF | HGU | $12.12 | 0.52% | 8.6% |
| Drxn Real Est 3X ETF | DRN | closed | 0.35% | 0.0% |
| Silver Wheaton | SLW | closed | 0.33% | 0.0% |
| Cenovus Energy | CVE | closed | 0.28% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Energy 3X ETF | ERX | closed | 0.25% | 0.0% |
| Cameco | CCO | closed | 0.23% | 0.0% |
| Teck Corp | TCK.B | closed | 0.19% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Gold Sh 3X Sh ETF | DUST | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Tech 3x ETF | TYH | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Claymore BRIC ETF | CBQ | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Em Mkt 3x ETF | EDC | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| HBP Glb Gold 2X Sh ETF | HGD | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Real Est 3X Sh ETF | DRV | $34.66 | -0.02% | 2.2% |
| Drxn Energy 3X Sh ETF | ERY | $10.06 | -0.03% | 2.2% |
| EnCana Corp | ECA | closed | -0.36% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Em Mkt 3x Sh ETF | EDZ | $14.50 | -0.41% | 8.4% |
| Drxn Tech 3x Sh ETF | TYP | $13.20 | -0.78% | 8.2% |
…
