This week the European Union came up with a plan to continue to assist Greece with debt rollovers, and Greece additionally made deals with private investors on principal write-downs of its debts. So Greece’s collapse is forestalled for a while. That I think will be enough to fuel markets for a while longer. With some of the uncertainty out of the way for now, and with equity generally being more attractive than debt (corporate profits have been rising being corporations have been able to use the financial of recent years to lay off workers and then not hire them back – and now all sovereign debt is called into question while interest rates still hover around all-time lows), the natural flow of investment funds should increase from the latter to the former. That’s my theory anyway. Even though there won’t be a shortage of continued bad news in the future, that may not be necessarily bad for stocks. Sure there will pullbacks like in any market, but I think its quite likely we could see a stock market run to the upside that will surprise everyone. It’s not really expected. And if all that QE money cuts loose …
Sprott Assett Management puts out a market report every month or so, and latest one called Unintended Consequences discusses the scope and impact of worldwide central bank efforts to stanche the worst effects of the de-leveraging trend currently under way. Essentially it boils down to continuous money-printing that will eventually come home to roost in ways we probably can’t imagine.
The portfolio recovered decently enough this week – about 1.3% – as gold and gold stocks in particular rallied. Oil and other commodities did quite well also along with stocks in general. Natural gas rallied nicely through mid-week but then gave back most of the gains in the last two sessions. With few order set-ups at the moment, there was only one trade all week – a sale of of a tranche of Cameco. Uranium and uranium stocks have had a good two-month rally.
| TRADING | 24-Feb-12 | UPDATE | 677 | |||||
| # | Trade | Qty | Stock | Symbol | Price | Acct | ||
| 20-Feb-12 | ||||||||
| Markets closed | ||||||||
| 21-Feb-12 | ||||||||
| 16 | Sold | 1.8% | Cameco | CCO | @ | $24.48 | 3 | |
| 22-Feb-12 | ||||||||
| No trades | ||||||||
| 23-Feb-12 | ||||||||
| No trades | ||||||||
| 24-Feb-12 | ||||||||
| No trades | ||||||||
| Qty % is the portfolio weighting | ||||||||
| EXTENSION REVERSAL TRADING SYSTEM (ERTS) | ||||
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| 24-Feb-12 | ||||
| S&P500 | 1365.7 | 2.3 | 0.2% | |
| TSX | 12725.8 | -5.5 | 0.0% | |
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| PORTFOLIO STATUS | ||||
| Market | JAN 12 | YTD | Incep | |
| Canadian Dollar | 1.0008 | -0.2% | 2.2% | -3.5% |
| S&P500 | 1365.7 | 4.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% |
| TSX | 12725.8 | 2.2% | 6.4% | -4.3% |
| Weight | ||||
| Portfolio % USD | 33.7% | -4.4% | -2.2% | 10.2% |
| Portfolio % CAD | 66.3% | 1.2% | 7.0% | -1.5% |
| FX | ||||
| PORTFOLIO EQUITY | CAD | -0.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| USD ERTS vs SP500 | USD | -8.4% | -10.8% | 3.1% |
| CAD ERTS vs TSX | CAD | -1.0% | 0.6% | 2.8% |
| ERTS vs SP500/TSX | CAD/USD | -3.5% | -3.3% | 2.9% |
| Inception is 30 Jun 11 | ||||
| *********************************************************** | ||||
| Portfolio Direction | Long | Short | Net | |
| Position | 29.8% | 0.0% | 29.8% | long |
| ETF Leverage-adjusted | 58.0% | 0.0% | 58.0% | long |
| CURRENT POSITIONS | ||||
| STOCK/ETF | SYM | LAST | Profit | WGT |
| CASH | 70.2% | |||
| Drxn Gold Sh 3X ETF | NUGT | $24.86 | 2.40% | 6.7% |
| HBP Glb Gold 2X ETF | HGU | $13.15 | 1.77% | 9.6% |
| HBP Nat Gas 2X ETF | HNU | $4.56 | 1.31% | 5.2% |
| Potash Corp | POT | $46.58 | 0.97% | 6.0% |
| Cameco | CCO | $25.20 | 0.40% | 0.6% |
| Drxn Real Est 3X ETF | DRN | closed | 0.34% | 0.0% |
| Silver Wheaton | SLW | closed | 0.33% | 0.0% |
| Cenovus Energy | CVE | closed | 0.28% | 0.0% |
| Teck Corp | TCK.B | $40.66 | 0.26% | 1.7% |
| Drxn Energy 3X ETF | ERX | closed | 0.24% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Energy 3X Sh ETF | ERY | closed | 0.02% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Tech 3x ETF | TYH | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Claymore BRIC ETF | CBQ | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Em Mkt 3x ETF | EDC | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| HBP Silver 2X ETF | HZU | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Agribus 3X ETF | COWL | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| HBP Cr Oil 2X ETF | HOU | closed | 0.00% | 0.0% |
| EnCana Corp | ECA | closed | -0.36% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Real Est 3X Sh ETF | DRV | closed | -0.41% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Em Mkt 3x Sh ETF | EDZ | closed | -1.52% | 0.0% |
| Drxn Tech 3x Sh ETF | TYP | closed | -1.61% | 0.0% |
